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Europeans will winter with turbines, but without gas

25 August 2022

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting
Тип: Interviews

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Svobodnaya Pressa on the prospects for increasing gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline and passing the heating period in Germany.

Alexey Belogoriev believes that there may be reserve turbines for Gazprom in Canada, which explains the company's statements. But in any case, Gazprom will not accept them until it receives guarantees that these supplies will be lifted from sanctions, which is unlikely. And although now the Europeans continue to fill their storage facilities, after the start of the heating season, the decline in Russian gas supplies may turn out to be critical.

It is clear that the injection is proceeding at a fairly vigorous pace, including in Germany, which may come up with 90% by the beginning of the heating period. But everyone understands that this does not save the situation, although it plays an important role. If low supplies from Gazprom continue or even decrease even more, it will be very difficult for Europeans to get through the heating period without a serious reduction in demand.

In addition to Russian gas, much will depend on how sustainable the supply of liquefied gas will be on the European market. Whether Europeans will be able to compete with Asian consumers remains an open question that analysts around the world are now thinking about. If the reduction in supplies from Russia is accompanied by a reduction in the supply of LNG, this will create critical risks for Europe to pass the heating season. Especially if the temperature regime is lower than last winter.

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