Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Gazeta.ru, when Russian gas will go to China instead of Europe.
The Europeans can only blame themselves
Aleksey Gromov in an interview with Gazeta.Ru noted that the active redirection of Russian gas towards China could create all the prerequisites for creating a fuel shortage in the EU after 2035.
A trade war between China and Australia
“With regard to Russian gas, the EU behaves like a dog in the manger: neither to itself nor to others. The increased needs of Europe in fuel are largely due to the depletion of the main fields of the EU, including Groningen in the Netherlands. Another important supplier, Norway, also works to the limit, with domestic production falling in the UK. Europeans continue to resent the redirection of Russian gas to China,” Gromov stated.
China painfully perceives any encroachments on its sovereignty from foreign states. The appearance of a powerful defensive association near the borders was a trigger for Beijing to respond, the expert stressed.
However, despite the escalation of the economic conflict with Canberra, Beijing did not unilaterally terminate large gas contracts, one of which will end in 2030, and the other in 2035. This is explained by China's acute dependence on Australian LNG supplies.
“China is ready to buy gas from any supplier. However, Beijing does not like it very much when the Chinese dragon is poked with a stick by its own neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia also banned Huawei Technologies from supplying equipment for the 5G mobile network, and even entered into a military alliance with China's main economic opponents, the United States. The PRC does not forgive this," Gromov said.
Washington will not tease China with sanctions
Alexey Gromov noted that it was not by chance that the American leadership refused to criticize the "Power of Siberia - 2". Against the background of the energy crisis in China in the fall of 2021, Washington signed a number of large long-term contracts with Beijing for the supply of American LNG.
“Until 2025, the States plan to introduce new LNG capacities that will allow the Americans to almost double LNG exports (in 2021, the export plan of the US Department of Energy was almost 80 billion cubic meters - Gazeta.Ru). Against this background, Washington clearly does not intend to lose income from fuel transit to Beijing,” the expert concluded.
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