Oil revenues decreased: what is the threat to Russia

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the news agency URA.ru the current reduction in oil and gas budget revenues and the future prospects of Russian oil exports.

The increase in discounts on Russian oil in recent months has been largely facilitated by India's partial refusal to purchase it, Alexey Gromov emphasizes. Because of this decision, the raw materials already shipped by sea had to be redirected to China at a large discount, which eventually affected the cost of Russian varieties.

"The average time for oil transportation from the Baltic or Black Sea ports to India is about a month. Some of the parties that this country did not accept because of the decision were left at sea off its shores. It is expensive to store it in tankers, and such volumes can only be sold to China at a large discount. This factor will put pressure on the price for at least two more months, and in a pessimistic scenario, until the seasonal summer revival of demand," Gromov believes.

Against this background, budget revenues from the oil and gas industry in the first quarter are likely to be lower than the same period in 2025, Gromov predicts. And this trend is likely to last at least until summer. At the same time, companies in the oil sector remain quite stable because they are vertically integrated and include not only production, but also processing, transportation, and trading through various schemes. Their structures are registered not only in Russia, but also in the UAE and other countries.