Marcel Salikhov, Director of the HSE Center for Economic Expertise, commented to the electronic publication Business Online on the reasons for sharp growing the dollar and the euro, and how the situation will develop further.
- The strengthening of the dollar and the euro is connected with the discussion that the Central Bank and the authorities as a whole should make some additional efforts to ensure that the ruble does not strengthen so much. Accordingly, the Ministry of Finance proposed to carry out interventions, including through other currencies, such as the yuan. Over the past few days, we have seen that the volume of trading on the Moscow Exchange in the yuan-ruble pair has increased significantly. Today, the Ministry of Finance published a release stating that interventions in the interests of the Ministry of Finance was not being carried out. And the data of the Central Bank, which is called a factor in the formation of liquidity in the banking sector, where there is a separate line "operation in the domestic foreign exchange market", also do not show that the regulator is conducting any interventions. However, there is a perception in the market that, even if this is not happening now, such decisions could be made.
While the wait effect is working. At the end of May, when the Central Bank announced a reduction in the key rate, the exchange rate there also fell to about 67 [rubles per dollar] in a few days. But then the ruble continued to strengthen, because the ratio of export earnings to import demand is still strong in favor of export earnings. It seems to me that, in general, such a value of the exchange rate as 60 [rubles per dollar] is rather too strong. All the same, the exchange rate of the ruble, as imports recover, will begin to weaken. I think that by the end of the year we will rather gravitate towards a rate of 60 to 70.
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