Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, summed up the results of the year for the Russian oil and gas industry in comments to the Neft and Capital online portal.
In the Russian gas sector in 2024, the expert noted the full capacity of the Power of Siberia, which is pumping the maximum volume for the main line in December. In fact, the project has reached 100% capacity, ahead of the original schedule by a year. But with liquefied gas, everything is not so good. Arctic LNG 2 has been launched, but the project has not even come close to the planned production volumes. The reason is unprecedented sanctions pressure from the United States and Europe."2024 was marked by increased Western sanctions against the Russian oil industry. It was this year that there was the greatest pressure of restrictions on the "shadow fleet". However, the Russian industry has successfully coped with this problem. It has also adapted to the general negative situation on the global market (slowing oil demand, risks of lower prices), having managed to increase oil and gas revenues in these conditions (the industry has allocated more funds to the budget than at the end of 2023)," Alexey Gromov said.
What surprises can the Russian oil and gas industry expect in 2025
Alexey Gromov noted that the Russian oil industry in the new year will be largely influenced by OPEC+ decisions. It is highly likely that the cartel, in order to support global oil prices, will prolong the voluntary restrictions on the deal. That is, it is quite possible that the strategy of low production will be not only in the first quarter of 2025, but throughout the year.
In 2025, Alexey Gromov believes, there is a risk that the West will lower the price ceiling for Russian oil. Its level has not been changed for two years. But all this time there were very high oil prices — around $80 per barrel. In 2025, there is a possibility of a decrease in the global value of black gold to $65-70, at which the meaning of the "cup" of $ 60 is almost completely lost. This means that the United States and its partners may lower its level in the winter.
For Russian oil refining in 2025, the main task will be to restore the lost capacities. By the end of 2024, they decreased by almost 3%, so in the new year, at least, they need to be returned so that there is no threat of a shortage in the fuel market.
The challenges for the Russian gas industry in 2025 are primarily related to the risk of new sanctions on Russian LNG supplies to EU countries. Europe has seriously increased imports of this type of energy carrier from Russia in recent years.

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