Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, commented to the Internet portal "Secret Firmy" about the current situation on the oil market and its impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Marcel Salikhov noted that the oil deficit on the market is now quite significant - 3-4 million barrels per day. The reason is the traditional increase in demand for petroleum products in the summer, as well as limited supply by OPEC +. Most likely, in the near future, quotations will exceed $ 80 per barrel, the expert said.
How the negotiations will end?
According to Salikhov, the most likely scenario is that the parties will come to a compromise and agree to increase quotas, and the issue of the terms of the OPEC + deal for 2022 will be left for later.
Production growth, he added, is in the long-term interests of OPEC + itself. With a Brent price of around $ 80 a barrel, cheap US shale oil could take over the market. The situation will be taken advantage of by other suppliers not included in OPEC +, the expert predicts. This obviously does not play into the hands of the oil cartel.
“The current uncertainty about increasing production is disadvantageous for the parties to the agreement, and will stimulate pressure from the US, EU, China and other large oil consumers. Currently, the unused production capacity of the OPEC + countries is about 5 million barrels per day. It is rather difficult for consumers to explain why producers do not increase production and return this oil to the market,” the expert said.
How the oil situation will affect Russia?
High prices contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, although to a lesser extent than before, Salikhov said.
This increases the country's reserves, but does not fundamentally affect the dynamics of the economy, Salikhov concluded.
“For 2021, the base price for Urals oil set in the budget is about $ 43 per barrel, that is, significantly lower than current levels. This means that the income from the excess of the current price goes to the NWF, and is not spent on current purposes,” the economist said.
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