Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a detailed interview to the Novye Izvestiya newspaper about the first market reaction to the introduction of a price ceiling on seaborne supplies of Russian oil, as well as the prospects for Russian oil exports next year.
- For half a year, and not without anxiety, the Europeans' ban on the purchase of Russian oil and the introduction of a price ceiling were discussed. How did the first five days of the embargo go?
-The first five days showed that the market practically did not react to this situation. And this is understandable. The first explanation lies in the sanctions restrictions themselves, which were announced back in May as part of the sixth EU sanctions package.
And I must say that Russian oilmen have shown, if not miracles, of course, then enviable efficiency in solving problems with the redirection of Russian oil supplies to alternative markets.
Therefore, by this time, 85% of Russian oil, which was sent by sea to Europe, had already been redirected in one form or another. First of all, these are India, China and Turkey. Therefore, the situation has not fundamentally changed.
-And if oil starts to rise in price again?
- The main impact that we are now seeing is the risks of a global recession. It is this factor that overshadows all the others today. More and more economic agencies, investment banks are sharing fears that 2023 could be the year of a global recession.
This global recession is pushing oil prices down and, of course, this is driving Russian oil prices down as well. Therefore, we are now witnessing such a trend as a decrease in budget revenues. As a result of November, Russian budget revenues from oil exports sank sharply. It is because of the general decline in world oil prices.
- The Ministry of Finance specified that in November the state budget not received about 90.2 billion rubles, but in December we will more than make up for it.
- It is very difficult to talk about whether it is possible or not to catch up, because everything depends on the conjuncture of world markets. So far, there is a feeling that if there are no additional corrective actions from, for example, the same OPEC +, then the oil market situation will decline. And, most likely, to decline at least until the New Year. And then we'll look further.
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