Bottlenecks: why it is difficult to buy diesel fuel, even though there is a lot of it

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the current balance in the Russian diesel fuel market and the likelihood of a ban on its export.

The wholesale price of diesel fuel is formed based on the results of exchange trading. Usually, their volume significantly exceeds the state-established standard of 16% of production, meaning vertically integrated companies (VICS) sell it in excess, explains Alexey Belogoryev. But since May, due to a sharp reduction in the production, sales have been cut to a mandatory minimum.

"At the same time, demand is growing, both seasonally and due to the fact that VICS itself began to buy diesel from competitors in order to provide its regional gas stations with fuel. For example, Tatneft had to do this after the Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk was shut down after drone strikes on June 12," the expert explains.

In retail, diesel prices are rising at almost the same rate as prices for much more scarce gasoline (+11.6%), Belogoryev draws attention, but more slowly than on the stock exchange.

Official statistics are not available, but according to rough estimates, in 2025 domestic diesel fuel consumption could reach 46 million tons per year with 85 million tons of production, Alexey Belogoryev told Forbes. According to him, an almost two-fold excess of production over consumption has been the norm for Russian oil refining since the completion of the main stage of its modernization in 2018. This situation created a huge "safety cushion" for supplying the domestic market, the analyst notes.

However, by July 2026, the situation was completely different, he emphasizes. The current supply of diesel by July 1, he believes, could decrease to 70-75% of the usual level. Although supply still exceeds domestic demand, the surplus has decreased by 2.5 times, the expert estimates.

In addition, Belogoryev notes, marine exports of diesel fuel fell sharply at the end of June, indicating a marked decline in production due to damage to a number of key refineries.

Diesel fuel supplies to gas stations face the same logistical challenges as gasoline shipments.

"The main fully-functioning refineries are now concentrated in the Volga-Kama basin, in the Urals and beyond, and in and around the Moscow agglomeration, in the entire Northwest and South of European Russia, supplies run into the bottlenecks of highly complicated and extended railway logistics," he says.

In addition, when transporting by rail, priority is now given to gasoline and jet fuel to the detriment of diesel, the expert notes.

There is no need to ban the export of diesel fuel right now, the expert argues. According to him, oil companies have already practically abandoned marine exports themselves, with the exception of Mongolia and Central Asia, where diesel is supplied by land in accordance with intergovernmental agreements.