"The blockade of the shadow fleet is a war declaration against Russia"

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, made comments to Novye Izvestia on the possibilities and consequences of imposing restrictions on the passage of the Russian "shadow fleet" through the Baltic Sea.

— In addition to the United States, the EU and the G7, a small Denmark threatens to limit trade in oil and petroleum products to Russia. How much is this possible?

— Technically it is possible. The question is, why do this and who will do it? Because Denmark will definitely not make the decision, it is a possible performer. And I am not sure that Denmark can implement this blockade on its own.

— There has never been such a thing in the sanctions arsenal against Russia.

— The blockade is a form of military action, not another economic measure. In fact, this is a declaration of war against Russia, and not just the shadow fleet. This is an extremely sharp increase in the escalation of relations between Russia and the West.

How ready the United States and Europe are for this is the main question. And how will Russia react to this? This is possible, it has been discussed for quite a long time, but not yet the basic scenario.

— How significant is the threat of the straits closure for our country?

— This is a big problem for Russia. In May–June, 44% of all tankers with Russian oil left the Baltic ports. Primorsky and Ust-Luga are our largest ports, there is nothing to replace them either in the short or medium term. Some can be delivered through Murmansk and Novorossiysk, but this is only a small part.

If such restrictions are imposed, it will definitely lead to a decrease in Russian exports. How strong the decline will be and how long it will last depends on the form of these restrictions.