Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to BaltNews on the prices dynamics for Russian Urals oil.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that now no one knows the real price of Urals. When the price ceiling was introduced, the market became opaque.
Today there are two serious problems. The first is that various pricing agencies "set" the cost, but they do not see the entire market. They have data only on single transactions that fall into their field of view. And they can seriously differ from the average price on the market. In addition, the pricing methods of such agencies are based on surveys. Previously, this did not bother anyone, because the market was open and transparent. But in the current conditions, objectively, no one knows how reliable Argus Media estimates are. There are suspicions that their data may be underestimated.
"The second part of the problem is that it is not known how part of the cost of oil is distributed between the port of shipment and the port of recipient. According to Argus Media, over the past three months, the cost of Urals has fluctuated in the range of $40-45 per barrel at the port of shipment (Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga). At the same time, we know the import price at which, for example, India buys Russian oil. And this cost differs from the reference varieties by no more than $ 10," Belogoryev noted.
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