Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the weak impact of the OPEC+ actions on the world oil prices dynamics.
The Russian maneuver"Now the market has not reacted particularly to the decision of OPEC + and additional cuts by Russia," Gromov says. — The OPEC+ countries [except Russia] have not assumed additional obligations, they have only extended the previous ones. This means that the impact of the decision on the market, by definition, will be limited, since the demand factor dominates the market now. And it is primarily noticed by traders who form the price situation in the market. And demand is weak, and oil prices will definitely not rise in the foreseeable future, and if demand remains stable, prices are likely to fall below $80 per barrel again."
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak predicted that oil production in Russia this year will amount to 520-530 million tons, that is, 10.4-10.6 million barrels per day. At the same time, the official Russian quota set by OPEC+ for 2024 is 9.95 million barrels per day, and taking into account the announced reductions, it is noticeably less. The difference was explained by analysts.
"All the oil production cuts that are being discussed within the framework of OPEC+ apply only to crude oil," Gromov explains. — When data on oil production in the country is announced for an internal Russian user, then gas condensate is included here. Last year, gas condensate production was over 800,000 barrels per day. This is a rather serious value, corresponding to about 40 million tons. And gas condensate production in Russia is growing. Therefore, it must be understood that all the restrictions mentioned relate only to crude oil, gas condensate does not fall under the restrictions."
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