Maxim Shevyrenkov, Head of the Center for Commodity Market Analysis at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the impact of the gasoline exports ban on the fuel cost at the Russian market.
The increase in prices was influenced by an increase in excise taxes by 5.1% and VAT from 20% to 22% from January 1, 2026, Maxim Shevyrenkov says. An additional increase in prices was caused by planned repairs at large oil refineries and UAV attacks, which forced enterprises to reduce processing, he notes. The conflict in the Middle East also gave an impetus, which led to a rise in world prices for both oil and petroleum products.
The ban on exports will have little effect on the increase in physical supply in the domestic market, the expert says. According to him, Russia exports a relatively small amount of gasoline, while the bulk goes under intergovernmental agreements, mainly with Mongolia, as well as with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which will not be affected by the ban. Data on gasoline exports and their destinations are closed, Shevyrenkov recalls. But, according to his calculations, in addition to supplies under intergovernmental agreements, Russia could export about 100,000 tons of gasoline per month with domestic consumption of over 3 million tons per month. At the same time, the ban will limit the impact of high global gasoline prices on the Russian market, as producers will no longer have an attractive export alternative.
Shevyrenkov also allows for the prolongation of the embargo in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.