Mikhail Ershov commented on the outflow of deposits from banks to the Expert publication.
Banks still cannot neglect the outflow of deposits, because the reduction in the resource base makes the entire financial system less stable, Mikhail Ershov, Principal Director on Financial Studies and Head of the Financial Analysis Department at the Institute for Energy and Finance says.
With the existing ratio of annual inflation and rates on term deposits, it turns out that depositors do not earn money by lending to banks, but, on the contrary, subsidize them at a loss. Although in the second decade of July, the average maximum rate on deposits in the top ten banks in terms of retail deposits in rubles (Sberbank, Tinkoff, VTB, Raiffeisenbank, Gazprombank, MKB, Alfa-Bank, FC Otkritie, Promsvyazbank, Rosselkhozbank) increased from 5.3% up to 5.46% (maximum since May 2020), nevertheless, the growth in profit of commercial banks noted in the Central Bank's report was achieved mainly due to an increase in interest rates on loans. The annual growth rate of retail lending in June amounted to 21.8%, which, together with the rise in the cost of loans, played the role of positive scissors for the entire banking system of the Russian Federation.
“If bank liabilities shrink, this makes financial institutions more fragile, so there is no reason for them to completely kick out depositors. Another question is that for the time being, banks have other instruments for making a profit, and this, to some extent, explains why financial institutions do not raise deposit rates despite the departure of clients and the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank,” he says.
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