Arctic LNG 2 has been stopped. And it is unlikely to work soon

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the current state and prospects of LNG exports and domestic consumption in Russia to the industry department of the Mash publication.

According to the National LNG Association, last year Russia shipped 33 million tons of liquefied natural gas abroad, and more than two thirds of this volume was provided by NOVATEK. International analysts are voicing a more modest figure – 31 million tons. By the end of the year, an increase in production is expected compared to 2023, but it will not be large - about 2.5–3 million tons, Alexey Belogoryev believes.

"It was assumed that LNG production in Russia would increase by 6-7 million tons. This would have been the case if Arctic LNG 2 had shipped normally, from January to February, as planned, but it started only in September, and then in a very limited volume. It is unclear what will happen next, because summer navigation along the Northern Sea Route is almost over, and soon it will be impossible to use conventional gas carriers. Ice-class tankers will be required for transportation, which Arctic LNG 2 still does not have," the expert emphasizes.

"Now NOVATEK and Gazprom are making great efforts to create their own technologies, many scientific institutes are involved in order to replace the import production of LNG tankers as soon as possible, but it will take years. This is a complex science-intensive production that requires the cooperation of many industries," says the Director of Research at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

The situation with Arctic–class tankers is especially difficult - they are being built only for Russia, because there are no such difficult ice conditions for LNG transportation anywhere else in the world, Alexey Belogoryev recalls. Therefore, the problem of providing the Russian market with such a fleet will remain for a long time – until 2030, for sure.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that already in 2026 and beyond, the market will face an LNG surplus when supply exceeds demand.