"We won't see $80 per barrel": where “the oil swing" will swing?

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute gave a comment to the Business Online newspaper about the situation in the world oil market.

Despite the pandemic and low consumption of petroleum products, oil prices fill the Russian stock market with optimism. The fundamental factors behind the growth of black gold are considered to be an increase in demand from China, slightly depleted stocks of oil storage facilities, a decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections and active vaccinations. All these reasons, according to the experts of "BUSINESS Online", boil down to one thing - the expectation of a recovery in demand.

“As for the federal budget, the base oil price, which is fixed in this year's budget, is $ 43.4 per barrel of Urals oil. Anything more than this value will be kept in the national welfare fund,” said Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise at the Institute of State and Municipal Management of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance.

“The world economy is now recovering rather quickly [after the pandemic], current data confirm this, vaccinations are underway in most developed countries, respectively, restrictions are being lifted, and this indicates that demand for oil in 2021 will grow,” Salikhov added. - Among the OPEC countries, a high level of discipline remains, the countries fulfill the obligations that they took under the deal. Since the beginning of the year, Saudi Arabia has taken additional commitments to cut production by 1 million barrels per day, that is, they additionally removed about 1 percent of the world oil supply”.

According to the expert, oil in the near future will not exceed $ 60 per barrel, continuing to fluctuate in the range between $ 50-60 per barrel. "Anyway, demand is now below the level of 2019," Salikhov stated.