The Oil and Capital magazine published an author's column by Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, "A Fate of the Ukrainian Gas Transit".
Based on the Eurostat and ENTSOG data, Alexey Belogoryev analyzes what is happening with Ukrainian gas transit to the EU in 2022–2023 and what are its prospects.
Gas distribution at the territory of Ukraine
The total supply of Russian gas through Ukraine, according to ENTSOG, amounted to 19.05 billion cubic meters in 2022, of which 50.4% fell on the period from January 1 to May 10. From May 11 to December 31 only 9.44 billion cubic meters were delivered, in January-April 2023 - 4.13 billion cubic meters.
In 2022, according to Naftogaz Ukrainy, 80.9% of Russian transit was sent to the border with Slovakia, 12.2% to Moldova, 4.9% to Poland and 2.0% to Romania. Minor volumes also went to Hungary. At the same time, all deliveries to Poland and Romania occurred at the beginning of the year. The last deliveries to Romania were recorded in March 2022, to Poland - in April. Starting from September 2022, deliveries from Ukraine to Hungary have actually stopped (GIS Berehove). Thus, today the entire transit of Russian gas is distributed in just two directions: to Slovakia (GIS "Velke-Kapushany") and to Moldova (two GIS "Alekseevka" and "Grebiniki"). In September-December 2022, according to ENTSOG, Moldova accounted for only 12.2% of the total transit, in January-April 2023 - already 19.0%.
In total, 828 million cubic meters of gas were supplied to Moldova in January-April 2023 from the territory of Ukraine, to Slovakia - 3514.6 million cubic meters.
Re-export to Ukraine
According to our estimates, in 2023-2024. re-export of Russian gas to Ukraine may remain at the level of 1.0-1.5 billion cubic meters per year.
Ukrainian transit of Russian gas to the EU countries, despite its apparent stability, can be changed (even without taking into account the obvious military and political risks) in a wide range: according to our estimates, from 10 to 16 billion cubic meters per year in 2023–2024. The most likely is its gradual reduction due to further contraction of demand for Russian gas in Italy, Austria and Slovakia. A short-term increase in demand is possible if the price competitiveness of Russian gas to spot supplies increases. But long-term growth can only rely on the resumption of Russian gas transit through Slovakia and Austria to the Czech Republic and Germany. However, in the current political conditions, such a scenario is hardly feasible.
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