A limited embargo: what will the US ban on the Russian oil purchase lead to

Forbes published a column by Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance - "A limited embargo: what will the US ban on the Russian oil purchase lead to."

The US and the UK sanctions could affect more than 11% of Russian oil exports. Russia has a chance to divert supplies to other markets, but the resumption of the nuclear deal with Iran calls such a scenario into question, Marcel Salikhov said.

New sanctions, now against Russia, will only lead to a redistribution of supply flows between countries, but will not reduce their total volume. For example, exporters from the Middle East will increase shipments to the US by reducing shipments to East and Southeast Asia, where they will be replaced by Russian companies. Such a redistribution, of course, will require time and additional costs, but it is quite possible. This is how events unfolded after the imposition of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Russia is a much larger exporter, so the economic incentives for redistribution will be even stronger. In this scenario, the sanctions imposed by the US and the UK will not affect the volume of Russian oil exports in 2022.