"If the price of Russian oil drops below $40, the authorities will ask oil companies to simply tighten their belts"

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave an interview to the industry magazine Khimagregaty about the current situation on the global oil market and the possible impact of lower oil prices on the Russian oil industry.

— Oil prices are rising, although not as much as they could, but analysts are not changing their annual forecasts. Why?

— We see that by the beginning of January, the market had a surplus of about 2.5 million barrels per day. This surplus puts downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the return of Venezuela to US control after the well-known events of early January will only strengthen this trend, especially if Trump manages to attract American investments in the restoration and development of Venezuelan oil production again. Maintaining the oil surplus on the market will also be facilitated by the fading growth in oil demand from China and the insufficiently high growth rates from India. As a result, there is a high probability that in 2026, world oil prices from current levels may well fall back to the level of 55 dollars per barrel, at least in the first half of the year.

At the same time, a stronger reduction in prices to $ 50 per barrel, that is, by more than $ 10 over the next one year, as stated by President Trump, is possible only if several factors coincide.

— What are these factors?

— The first is the preservation of high production in the United States, which is not very obvious even in terms of current oil prices. Secondly, the OPEC+ abandon of regulation of global oil supply in favor of restoring production in its member countries, as it already did in 2025. If these factors take shape, then global oil prices may indeed begin to fall at a much faster pace and reach $50 by the end of this year.

— And will OPEC+ be satisfied with this scenario?

— In my opinion, no. In such a situation, the countries of the Alliance will experience significant losses in oil and gas revenues. Everything in this situation will depend on the actions or omissions of OPEC+. In case of inaction, a price drop to $ 50 by the end of the year is possible. In the event that OPEC + not only maintains the freeze on production recovery, but also returns to new additional voluntary restrictions on the market, then the fall in oil prices will be stopped at $ 55 per barrel. I emphasize that this is not predetermined, a lot depends on the position of the Alliance countries, it is not yet clear.