What will the US attack on Venezuela change for Russian oil

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a detailed interview to the News Agency Ura.ru on the impact of the of the Venezuela’s ruling regime change on the Russian oil industry prospects.

— What changes the Venezuelan scenario for Russia, China and India? Will the Asian discount for Russian Urals oil decrease?

— China bought up to 650,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil per day and has traditionally been its largest importer, and due to its physico-chemical properties, these raw materials were in demand by Chinese refineries. Now the United States is demanding that Venezuela end relations in the oil sector with Russia and China. This means that Beijing will not receive these volumes and will be forced to look for them on the open market, most likely, it will purchase them from Russia.

Therefore, our country has the opportunity to increase supplies to China at least in the near future and improve the situation of the oil sector, which is currently in a difficult situation.

According to preliminary estimates for 2025, Russian oil supplies to China decreased from 108 to about 100 million tons compared to 2024. But this small possible increase in supplies will not significantly affect the discount on Urals. After all, the volume of Venezuelan oil exports is 1% of the global market, while Russia accounts for 10 times more.

— What about in the longer term? US President Donald Trump has outlined plans for the United States to take control of oil production in the country and increase it. If Washington gets access to Venezuelan reserves, how will this affect volumes and quotes?

— Now, unfortunately, the official statistics of oil production in Venezuela are either not published, or have significant deviations from the reality. But if you look, for example, at the data from OPEC, of which this country is a part, then the volume of oil production in Venezuela in 2025 fluctuated at the level of 1 million barrels per day. This figure has doubled compared to 2020, thanks to Chinese and Russian investments.

However, back in 2016, production volumes exceeded 2 million barrels per day. And now, to at least return to the figures of a decade ago, it will take a long time and huge investments in the restoration of the industry. This process will take at least two, or rather even three years.

— Will American oil companies invest in Venezuela at the prices that Trump is seeking?

— According to statements by ExxonMobil's management, who expressed doubts about the effectiveness of future investments in Venezuelan oil production, it is clear that American business is not eager to invest in this country. And the main reason is not oil prices, but the political uncertainty surrounding Venezuela.

— How can the potential redistribution of the oil market affect the policies and decisions of OPEC+?

— If OPEC+ wants to maintain its role as a significant regulator of the global oil market, it will be forced to intervene in this market situation and, at least, extend the production restrictions announced for the first quarter of 2026.

— What line will Russia follow in terms of production volumes?

Of course, Russia will fully support the OPEC+ policy aimed at stabilizing the global oil market. And this stabilization can be achieved only by eliminating the surplus in the market. There are two ways to remove it: by increasing demand or by reducing supply. The first is not in the competence of OPEC+, so I really hope that the Alliance will return to a proactive policy on the global oil market and in the spring of 2026 we will see new OPEC+ initiatives to reduce additional supply on the market.