Winter is coming: the energy crisis is already knocking on Europe's doors

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Baltnews on the prospects for Russian LNG supplies to the EU market.

As Alexey Belogoryev explained, new capacities will be introduced in stages, and in the second half of 2025, supplies from Russia can already be partially replaced.

In 2025, Russian imports to the EU countries will decrease. In 2026, it is even possible to impose an embargo on Russian LNG due to the complete replacement of Russian supplies. If relations between Brussels and Moscow do not improve during this time, then this is almost a basic scenario.

Alexey Belogoryev recalled that current prices were based on supply and demand, and an important factor was the fact that LNG supply in Europe fell sharply. The EU missed about 20 million tons of LNG year-on-year. The shortage of liquefied gas also ensures an increase in cost. Pipeline supplies were also growing from Russia, Algeria, and Norway, while demand continued to decline. But in the end, the growth of supplies from Norway balanced demand within the EU and Britain.

"At the same time, from about 2026-2027, a transition to a supply surplus in the global LNG market is expected. This will significantly reduce prices in the European market. Even if Ukraine completely stops transit. For Europe, of course, dependence on LNG is a strategically risky decision, since they have to compete with Asian consumers for these volumes. However, this is risky now, when there is sometimes a shortage of supply. When the deficit risk decreases in 2026-2028, it will be much easier for the European Union. Although it is still unclear what will happen to demand in the EU during that period, because Brussels is still eager to reduce demand for fossil energy resources in favor of the green agenda," Belogoryev concluded.