Did the Kyzyl–Kuragino railway get a second wind?

Alexander Titov, senior expert of the Energy Department at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the possibilities of implementing the Kyzyl-Kuragino railway branch construction project to the Russian Railways Partner publication.

Alexander Titov says that it is difficult to assess the prospects of the line, since little is known about it in the new configuration, but he also clarifies that the project may be relevant for the export of Tuvan coal rather as an additional export route.

"With the current loading of the Eastern landfill, it will be difficult for Tuvan coal to start from the Krasnoyarsk Territory and travel through the entire BAM or Transsib to ports in the Far East. Although may be until 2035 (the planned date for the line construction) the Eastern polygon will be dispersed," Titov comments.

"Coal is a raw material that is constantly under threat of reduced consumption and imports due to decarbonization. I think that in 2035 coal will be consumed, but the configuration of the market is unclear, what kind of coal will be needed and in what volumes. This means that it will be difficult to get project financing for such a road," Alexander Titov believes. The fact that the way to China is planned to pass through Mongolia is also a dubious prospect, since Mongolia itself is increasing production and entering the Chinese market: "In 2024, coal exports from Mongolia may grow by 12% year–on-year to 75 million tons. And China is still the only buyer of Mongolian coal. This means that Mongolia loads the export infrastructure with its coal. It is not profitable for it to transfer competing Russian coal."