Oil prices consolidation in the range of $75-80

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to TASS on the implications of the announced agreement between Iran and the United States, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, for global oil and LNG markets.

"Yes, I expect Brent prices to decrease further to $75-80 per barrel. I think prices will consolidate in this corridor for the next one and a half to two months, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, which will take time, and the promised 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are underway. Naturally, all this can happen if the announced agreements are signed on June 19," Belogoryev said.

He admits attempts to break through the $75 mark down, but it will be difficult to gain a foothold below.

"All market participants are forced to include in their prices the possibility of resuming hostilities if negotiations break down. And the probability of their failure is now estimated at about 50-50," the expert explained.

According to him, there are strong parties of "hawks" in both countries who are unhappy even with the current agreement, and the Israeli factor, which can resume hostilities in Lebanon at any moment, is likely to disrupt negotiations or significantly slow them down.

Belogoryev estimates that the return of rhythmic supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will take about a month and a half - they may recover from the beginning of August.

"But there is a second part of the problem, related to the fact that the months-long crisis has fundamentally undermined confidence in the reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Some importers have rebuilt their logistics chains as much as they could. And most importantly, the lack of confidence that all this will not fail at the last moment, of course, will force importers to act quite cautiously," he said.

The demand for oil from the Persian Gulf may not return to pre-war levels immediately - it may take until late autumn.