Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the Iran-Israel military conflict consequences for the global oil market and Russian oil exports.
Earlier, Donald Trump made several statements on the Truth Social network, in particular, he wrote that Washington's patience was running out and demanded unconditional surrender from Iran. Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. This would be a huge shock to the global energy market, JP Morgan bank experts estimated, but the Islamic Republic itself would then lose the waterway and lose revenue. However, in this case, Russia will be able to take the place of Iranian suppliers, Alexey Belogoryev believes:
"Russian oil competes in the markets of China and India mainly with Iranian oil, because both are sanctioned, that is, discounts also apply to fuel from the Islamic Republic. Thus, they are similar in cost, as well as in quality characteristics, that is, they are interchangeable. Therefore, if part of the Iranian oil leaves the market, then this is an additional opportunity for Russian suppliers to increase exports. Plus, the cost is increasing: before these events, the average annual price was declining towards about $65-64 per barrel of Brent. Now it is possible that it will rise to $70-71, which is the average annual level."
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