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What will Iranian oil result in for OPEC countries?

03 December 2013

Gromov Alexey I. Principal Director on Energy Studies, Head of the Energy Department

According to the radio station «Voice of Russia», the lifting of economic sanctions makes life easier for Iran, but threatens other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with difficulties. The return of large volumes of Iranian oil to the world market could significantly affect the price of black gold.

Alexei Gromov, Director for Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the Voice of Russia radio station on the possible impact of lifting of international sanctions against Iran on world oil prices:

It is clear that no one is going to give hydrocarbons for a pittance. But different OPEC members have different limits for the maximum allowable price reduction. For Saudi Arabia, for example, $ 80 per barrel will be enough for a deficit-free budget. But Venezuela needs at least 115. Therefore, Caracas is already calling for OPEC to revise quotas against the backdrop of Tehran’s return to the market. The majority still wants to take a closer look at the situation, and not chop off their own supplies:

«Indeed, a situation may arise when the injection of very significant volumes of Iranian oil will lead to a decrease in prices. But I would not say that this can have a very significant impact on the oil market in the long term. Because after all, the return of one, even a major player will not radically change the picture. Short-term turbulence is possible. But later the big players will definitely adjust the situation and it will return to its usual course.»

Gromov Alexey I. Principal Director on Energy Studies, Head of the Energy Department
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