A question of the day: will the US President Biden help Russian LNG producers?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Novye Izvestia on the causes and consequences of the ban imposed in the United States on the issuance of new export licenses for LNG exports.

Russia successfully supplies liquefied natural gas to Europe. There are no data for the year yet, but in 11 months of 2023, Russia exported 18.8 million tons of LNG to the EU, but the authorities say that a large increase by the results of 2022 should not be expected. However, even if the decision of the American authorities affects Russian gas exports, it is very insignificant, either on the Power of Siberia-2 or on LNG supplies, Alexey Belogoryev says:

— This somewhat improves the prospects for Russian LNG plants. The decision on Power of Siberia-2 depends on the Chinese side and rests on forecasts of demand in China itself in the 30s. This is a favorable factor for Russian LNG suppliers, but I would not exaggerate it.

Alexey Belogoryev explains such a restrained forecast, first of all, by the fact that gas overproduction is predicted for 2026, since capacities are being put into operation not only in the United States. And it's hard to imagine that American corporations will stay away from the energy business, especially after they took the first place in the competition for the most expensive market in the world. Therefore, the expert does not see great prospects for Russian LNG:

— I repeat, this moratorium will have no impact on the LNG market or on the US LNG export revenues in the next few years. Even if the launch dates of new plants are postponed for a year, this is not critical, because after 2026, an LNG overproduction crisis is expected on the world market, so the fewer plants are commissioned in these years, the better.