Venezuela is unlikely to be able to quickly increase oil production, despite the US plans

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to InfoTEK on the prospects for oil production growth in Venezuela in 2026-2027.

The forecast announced by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright for a 30-40% increase in oil production in Venezuela by the end of 2026 is extremely ambitious and difficult to achieve in practice. This assessment was expressed by Alexey Belogoryev.

According to him, formally such figures look achievable, but the real state of affairs in the oil industry of the South American country is far from favorable pictures.

"Growth of 30-40% by the end of 2026 is a theoretically achievable goal, but in practice it is extremely ambitious. Before the December recession, Venezuela, according to its own data, produced up to 1.14 million barrels per day (bpd). According to international estimates, production remained within 1.0 million. The realistic range of growth in 2025 is by 150-300 thousand b/d," the expert noted.

Belogoryev explained that even the lower limit of this range would require serious effort from American Chevron and Venezuelan PDVSA. The upper limit, in his opinion, is achievable only on one condition — the rapid return to the country of other Western majors, including Repsol, Eni and, perhaps, the most risky American players.

The analyst noted that recent legislative changes in Venezuela still create prerequisites for an influx of investments. However, he warned that the effect of them would be delayed, and the political situation remained extremely precarious.

"The basis for this was laid by the fundamental changes introduced on January 29 to the law on hydrocarbons. They are essentially dismantling the main legacy of Chavismo in the oil and gas industry, providing foreign and private investors with full operational and financial freedom in new production projects, as well as more lenient and predictable tax conditions. But such changes do not have an instant effect — the horizon here is 2-4 years or more. Moreover, the domestic political situation in Venezuela remains tense, and the United States, despite the bravado of Donald Trump and Mark Rubio, is far from being able to control it sustainably," Belogoryev stressed.

He also drew attention to the catastrophic state of the infrastructure and the lack of resources.