Venezuela has found itself in a no choice situation

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Expert magazine on what has changed in Venezuela’s oil industry since January 2026.

Since the beginning of 2026, a “counter‑revolution” has taken place in Venezuela’s oil industry, dismantling the main legacy of Hugo Chávez (who was the country’s president from 1999 to 2013 — “Expert”), Alexey Belogoryev says.

• The National Assembly of Venezuela approved a new law at the end of January 2026, changing the regulation of oil production, and amendments to it came into effect on July 9.

• The reform that was implemented radically changed the conditions for foreign companies operating in Venezuela — they were granted the operational and financial freedom they had been deprived of after 2006-2007.

• The reform created for the first time the conditions for the formation of national private oil and gas companies in Venezuela. Taxation was also significantly optimized.

• An important innovation was the license issued by the US Department of the Treasury on February 10, which permitted the export of Venezuelan oil.

• Another license prohibited any transactions with Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba, and also complicated supplies to China.

Changes in the regulation of the oil industry allowed Venezuela to increase both production and exports. In June, Venezuela produced 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), which is almost a third more than in January, according to the OPEC data. These are the highest production figures since the winter of 2018/2019, i.e., before the sanctions imposed on Venezuela during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, Alexey Belogoryev says. Exports have grown almost 1.5‑fold since the beginning of the year, he noted. According to his assessment, out of 1.2 million bpd of supplies abroad, at least 0.63 million bpd went to the United States, 0.28 million bpd to India, and the rest to Europe. Exports are primarily carried out by the American company Chevron and traders Vitol and Trafigura.

However, these changes are still barely noticeable on the global market, given the loss of 10-15 million barrels per day of oil due to the blockade of Hormuz, Alexey Belogoryev emphasized.

“What matters here is not the volumes, but the structure of sales. The US and India have gained additional volumes of heavy oil at the expense of comparable losses for China. A global redistribution of flows is taking place,” he said.