Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the online publication Readovka on the risks of blocking the Strait of Hormuz for global energy markets.
Unlike in the LNG sector, the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz radically changes the balance of power for Russian oil exporters, but the situation is far from a clear victory. With global growth in world oil and gas prices, the size of the sanctions discount will no longer play a decisive role. Moreover, the logistical collapse is forcing Western countries to reconsider the severity of sanctions barriers.
According to Alexey Gromov, the full lifting of restrictions should not be expected – Washington will only situationally turn a blind eye to purchases or extend temporary relief for individual buyer countries if the conflict drags on. In these circumstances, Russia's key partners remain India, China (they account for the lion's share of exports) and Turkey, which will continue to buy back volumes of Russian oil in accordance with their plans, regardless of American bans. But the European Union, which itself imposed an embargo on supplies from Russia, will not receive any concessions.
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