Gas was added to the bidding

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the competition of LNG suppliers for the European market and the prospects for imposing an embargo on Russian LNG in the EU.

With the introduction of new capacities by Middle Eastern countries, Brussels could impose a limited embargo on imports from Russia, Alexei Belogoryev says:

"There is clearly a shortage on the market, and the demand for LNG in Europe is growing due to low reserves in underground storage facilities and the loss of Ukrainian transit. All new American gas is used to cover the increase in demand. In 2025, the EU needs to purchase 20 million tons more LNG than in the past, which is the size of one large plant.

In fact, all the capacities that are being commissioned this year are American LNG. The capacities of other countries, primarily Qatar, will be commissioned from 2026. The supply of Russian liquefied natural gas to the EU is about 16 million tons per year. 75% of the production of the Yamal LNG plant. We have nowhere else to take, given the cross-sanctions. Approximately this volume is needed in Europe from Russia. It will be possible to replace him from spring-summer 2026.

Will Russia find other markets? In reality, it is possible to reorient only in the South and Southeast Asian market. But there is high competition, limited demand growth, and Russian gas is practically unknown. The transportation distance will increase approximately three times if you take it not to Northwestern Europe, but, for example, to India or even more so to China. We need more gas carriers, and there aren't enough of them as it is. The problem here is that if it comes to an EU embargo, it will most likely be accompanied by the imposition of US sanctions against Yamal LNG. This means that there is no Ukrainian regulation and relations continue to deteriorate. It is most likely that the issue of the embargo will be left to specific countries. Five countries import Russian LNG: Spain, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Greece. There is also the problem of long-term contracts with Yamal LNG, which they cannot just ignore, much less terminate."