Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the URA.RU online portal on the US plans to consider imposing a temporary ban on diesel fuel exports.
“Due to the lack of Russian supplies, a structural deficit of petroleum products has emerged worldwide. The US accounts for 50% of Europe’s diesel imports. If they impose a temporary ban on diesel exports ahead of the elections, it will be a ‘perfect storm’: the fuel shortage will intensify the panic, trigger an increase in freight rates, and put pressure on oil prices,” Gromov explained.
“Right now, prices are fluctuating around $100 per barrel. If there’s no progress on the Strait of Hormuz, prices could rise to $110–115 per barrel, but not to $150–200 — there won’t be that kind of panic,” the expert noted.
Russia is opening up opportunities to earn money, but the possibilities are still limited, Gromov continued. The first reason is the attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on Russian oil refineries, which are currently reducing processing and exports. The second reason is the record freight rates: the cost of delivering oil from the Baltic to India has risen from $10 to more than $20 per barrel, he noted.
“Taking into account insurance and transportation, the profitability of exports, even at high prices, is not that great. There will be an increase in the budget, but it will be less than it could have been under normal conditions,” Gromov concluded.
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