The European Union has agreed on rules for phasing out Russian gas imports

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Business FM on the prospects for an accelerated embargo on Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas in the EU and its consequences for the Russian gas industry:

"The replacement of Russian gas, both piped and liquefied, is planned through additional LNG imports from the United States. This is consistent with the estimates of most experts. This surplus is already being observed on the market, it is taking shape right before our eyes, but in 2026 and 2027 it will be quite small, but from the first quarter of 2028 a sharp surge in excess is expected due to the large-scale commissioning of new capacities, which greatly exceed the increase in demand, and this allows the EU to count on uninterrupted LNG supplies through relatively low prices. Another thing is that 2027 looks vulnerable so far: the EU's plans are largely based on the assessments that were made in previous years. The situation no longer looks so favorable due to the shift in the commissioning of new facilities and anti-Russian sanctions. In 2027, there will not be such an abundance of offers as it was seen before.

The abandonment of Russian gas, especially pipeline gas, as early as 2027 is to some extent a false start. Some risks arise. Another thing is that they are not so critical after all. This is significant for Russia, but it is no longer so fundamental, since Russia suffered the main losses back in 2023-2024. But for the export of Russian LNG, this is a critically important issue, since so far 43% of all supplies go to Europe. And which markets will these volumes be redirected to? How to provide this volume? It's an open question."