Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the likely parameters of the deal for the forced sale of Rosneft's subsidiaries in Germany, Rosneft Deutschland GmbH and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH.
"This is an infrequent case where there is no need to guess, since there are current assessments by two independent audit groups hired by Rosneft and the German Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection. Rosneft's estimate of €6.5 billion may well be taken as the basis for the "full" value. The German audit of €3.5–4 billion, which takes into account the sanctions discount, obviously reflects the upper level within which the German government is ready to bargain. Unfortunately, it is much closer to the real value of the transaction.
On Rosneft's side, the nationalization has been delayed for a long time, and the German authorities, as well as the European Commission, as far as can be judged, still want to conduct it relatively amicably, that is, with the consent of Rosneft itself. So that in the eyes of international investors, the transaction would not look like a hidden confiscation and, if possible, it would be possible to dispense with years of litigation. But if it is not possible to agree on the price, then the German Energy Security Law of 1975, as amended in 2023, fully allows the government to transfer Rosneft to a special blocked escrow account in a German bank the amount that it considers fair and formally put an end to it. Another thing is that this will not be well perceived in the world," Alexey Belogoryev said.
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