The compensation equation: Why oil doesn't get cheaper after the OPEC+ decision

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the weak reaction of the global oil market to the OPEC+'s decision to continue lifting restrictions on oil production after September 2025 until the restrictions were completely lifted by September 2026.

"I personally assumed that OPEC+ would still pause after decisions were made to accelerate the withdrawal from additional voluntary restrictions on 2.2 million bpd, but we see that the situation is developing somewhat differently," Alexey Gromov comments. There is a feeling that OPEC+ is aiming to restore its position in the market in order to avoid production restrictions by September 2026 in an ideal scenario, if there are no new shocks."

The lowered Russian oil prices cap that has come into force is unlikely to affect Russian exports, since the United States did not support this measure, Gromov believes.

According to the expert, cargo carriers that are ready to transport Russian oil in terms of a reduced price cap can continue to do so. Currently, about 450 tankers, which make up about half of the shadow fleet transporting Russian oil, have already been included in the US or EU sanctions lists. However, he adds, from a third to half of the tankers that have already been sanctioned for violating the price ceiling requirement continue to supply Russian oil worldwide, primarily to China and India.

At the same time, according to Gromov, Russia is unlikely to be able to significantly increase production.

"We have three factors at work that prevent any noticeable increase in production," he notes. "The first factor is the fulfillment of Russia's obligations under OPEC+, the number two factor is the lack of demand for additional Russian oil on world markets, and the third factor is the government's tight monetary policy, which prevents investments in the further development of Russian oil production."