Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Neft and Capital magazine on the prospects for the Ukrainian gas transit.
According to Alexey Belogoryev, there are several options to ensure gas transit through Ukraine.
The first is the preservation of the status quo, in which there will be a certain company acting as Gazprom's agent for booking capacities in the Ukrainian GTS. For the last five years, in fact, Ukrainian Naftogaz has been acting as such, because Gazprom has only an operator agreement with a Ukrainian company, where it only submits applications, and the agent is Naftogaz. But Kiev does not want them to legally have Russian gas.
"There is another option — Russian gas will be sold on the Ukrainian border by some company from the EU or to a consortium. This idea has been hatched for many years. But then Azerbaijani gas is not needed at all.
Another scenario is that formally, blue fuel from Azerbaijan will be supplied to the Ukrainian border and a company from this country will also sell it to consumers from the EU. But physically it will still be gas from Russia. Baku simply does not have free 10-15 billion cubic meters per year now, which came from the Russian Federation via the Ukrainian GTS in recent years. Azerbaijan can find a maximum of 1-1.5 billion, and what will happen after 2027 is generally unclear," the expert says.
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