Ukraine has not held an auction for gas transit. What does it mean

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the prospects for ending or maintaining Ukrainian transit of Russian gas.

Alexey Belogoryev admits that Kiev "decided to stop transit on January 1 in order to use this issue as their trump card later, at possible peace talks announced by Donald Trump."

According to ENTSOG data, Austria continues to purchase Russian gas in large volumes, Belogoryev says. According to his estimates, from November 16 to December 12, gas flow from Slovakia to the country decreased by only 14% compared to the first half of November (when the contract with OMV was still in force) — from 25 million to 21.3 million cubic meters per day.

"Therefore, the absence of a long-term contract does not mean that Austria no longer needs Russian gas. The country is ready to survive without it for some time due to the huge UGS reserves. Limited gas flows from Italy and Germany are also possible... But behind the scenes, Austria will almost certainly continue to lobby for continued transit," the expert believes.

Slovakia will also stay without Russian gas for two to three months due to large reserves in underground storage facilities, Belogoryev adds. However, the issue with Moldova remains unclear, which has neither its own UGS facilities nor an alternative to completely replace gas from Russia.