The threat of a coup looms over the Iranian oil industry

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the events in Iran and their impact on the global oil market to the Neft and Capital Internet portal.

"Two weeks of protests have not overturned the industry in Iran. Yes, all these riots have a negative effect on the economy, but production and exports have not suffered. They were fine before the New Year. In December, Iran's oil exports decreased to 1.6 million b/d, but it should be understood that from September to November, the figure was a record 2 million b/d. Compared to December 2023 and 2024, exports in December 2025 are almost the same. Production, by the way, is also at the usual level — almost 3.2 million bpd," the expert said.

Approximately 1.6 million b/d of this volume, i.e. almost all of Iran's exports go to China. Alexey Gromov stressed that Iran is much more important to Beijing than Venezuela. Incomparably more funds have been invested in Tehran than in a Latin American country, so it is unlikely that China will sit idly by if Iran suddenly begins to change the current regime to a pro-American one.

"Cooperation with Iran is much more profitable for China than for Tehran. Beijing gets such discounts on oil that no one else in the market will provide it now. For this reason, it will never turn away from Tehran. Russia also does not benefit from an apocalyptic scenario in which Iran plunges into civil war. Yes, it is possible to increase Russian oil supplies to China, but this will be a situational benefit. But Moscow will lose its strategic partner in the Middle East, with whom it has long-term contracts," Gromov concluded.