HomeMediaLatest NewsKeeping the oil market from surplus in 2025 is possible

Keeping the oil market from surplus in 2025 is possible

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to TASS on the global oil market prospects in 2025.

Alexey Belogoryev notes that in fact, no one knows exactly what the current balance in the oil market is. The expert explains that the data is released with a long delay and is often reviewed after the fact.

"The only available tool for operational balance assessment is the change in commercial reserves of oil and petroleum products in developed countries. Judging by them, the market remained balanced in the second half of 2024, as reserves remained stable in the 2023 range of 2.77-2.84 billion barrels," he says.

At the same time, according to the expert, in 2025, the balance in the oil market depends mainly on the OPEC+ countries. Thus, Belogoryev cites estimates according to which the entire expected increase in global demand in 2025 - 1-1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) - will be balanced by an increase in non-OPEC+ oil production (by about 1.3 million b/d).

"If OPEC+ abandons its plans to increase production under these conditions, the market will remain more or less balanced. If not, then, starting from the second quarter, an increasing surplus will be formed. But it can be partially offset by the replenishment of strategic oil reserves in the United States, which have been severely depleted in recent years," the expert notes.

Belogoryev also emphasizes that the situation of OPEC+ in 2025 will remain "stalemate." He draws attention to the fact that many countries of the alliance, for various reasons, are not ready to continue to support voluntary production restrictions. And in order for the deal not to fall apart, OPEC+ will have to allow them to increase production.
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