Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, made a comment to Finam.ru on the likely dynamics of world oil prices in 3-4 quarter 2024.
Will the ratio of positive and negative factors in the oil market change? According to experts, most likely, investors will not see a strong surge in plus or minus in the near future. So far, there are no clear signs that prices, which have been held in a relatively narrow range of 78-85 dollars per barrel for most of the summer, occasionally rising slightly higher, are ready to go beyond these limits soon, Alexey Belogoryev says.
“But the market sentiment is now rather cautious and even pessimistic. A reversal of the trend may occur in October: much will depend on how the planned increase in production from OPEC+ affects the balance of supply and demand. And if it does - and this may lead to a steady supply surplus (this will be seen quickly by an increase in commercial reserves) - will OPEC+ be able to quickly adjust its policy? So far, prices are staying in a comfortable corridor for OPEC+: the average annual price of Brent in 2024, based on current trends, will be about 83-85 dollars per barrel,” the analyst added.
“Speaking of Russian oil companies, I don't see any particular positivity, but I don't see any negativity either. The situation is generally stable. Domestic demand and processing continue to grow, exports have sunk in comparison with spring and summer, including in value terms, but still more or less stable,” Belogoryev said.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications