Price below $60 per barrel: the OPEC+ excuses and consequences for Russia

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Neft and Capital internet portal on the impact of OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production on the prospects of the Alliance and Russian oil production.

According to Alexey Gromov, the fundamental factors referred to by OPEC+ are indeed present. But there is another factor in the cartel's motive — the need to reduce tensions within the alliance itself. The expert recalled that for three years, OPEC+ countries have consistently restrained the production of black gold. This has accumulated the discontent of many producing states of the cartel, where there is a large share of foreign participation in oil production, including Iraq and Kazakhstan (which, by the way, have been fulfilling quotas extremely poorly lately).

"The current decision of OPEC+ is a signal that the cartel wants to maintain unity in its ranks and at the same time not lose power in the global market, where it plays a very significant role. Taking advantage of the moment, the organization is increasing production so as not to solve the issues of why Iraq and Kazakhstan exceed their quotas," the expert explained.

As for the consequences of the current low oil prices for the Russian budget, which depends on oil and gas revenues for almost a third (their share in 2025 is expected to be about 25%), the situation is not too rosy. The Ministry of Finance has already lowered its forecast for oil and gas budget revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles, and also revised the budget deficit by more than half.