Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, made comments to Kommersant FM on the prospects for stopping the Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
Gazprom's transit contract with Ukraine ends on January 1, 2025. But by this time, Russia and the West will try to come to an agreement, and European companies will play an important role in this, Alexey Belogoryev is sure:
"The real subject of negotiations, which will most likely begin only in autumn, will be the booking of Ukrainian GTS capacities on a short-term basis by one or more European companies that will transit Russian gas on certain conditions. There are a number of legal issues there, including the gas transfer point, which is now located on the territory of the EU. But everything can be settled, if there is a desire.
Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary are the three countries that are most interested in ensuring that transit continues.
Hungary, perhaps to a lesser extent, so as can be completely switched to the "Balkan Stream". Slovakia and Austria currently have no other routes except Ukraine for Russian gas. It is also impossible to replace it in full, at least by 2025 for sure, even in 2026-2027 it will be quite difficult. Therefore, I think that both countries will lobby in every possible way for the continuation of transit. In particular, they can offer their services as intermediaries in the form of those companies that, in fact, will book these facilities. It seems to me that this is a real subject for negotiations, unlike the illusory idea of the Azerbaijani gas transit."
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications