There's no need to rush… Will Gazprom and Novatek withdraw from the European LNG market?

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave an interview to the Chemical Aggregates industry magazine about new opportunities for exporting Russian LNG amid the conflict in the Middle East.

The EU roadmap for abandoning Russian hydrocarbons was adopted at the end of last year. According to the plan of the European Commission, the farewell to Russian gas should begin on April 25, 2026. From now on, European companies will be prohibited from concluding spot contracts for the supply of LNG. Two months later, on June 17, the ban on short-term contracts will affect pipeline gas that flows through the Turkish Stream, the only remaining pipe to the west. On January 1, liquefied natural gas will be completely banned, and in 9 months, all pipeline gas will be banned.

What will happen to Russian LNG on April 25?

Both bans will affect both Novatek and Gazprom.

— Gazprom does not actually supply its LNG to Europe. Its factories are under US and EU sanctions and are now practically not working. We are talking about the Yamal LNG plant. Half of the gas from Yamal LNG is sent to European countries at very good prices, taking into account the short logistical shoulder of delivery, Alexey Gromov explains.

Europe and pipeline gas: Turkish Stream is not included in the concept of retaliation

The situation with gas supplies to Europe via pipelines is fundamentally different.

Gazprom supplies natural gas to the Bosphorus and further to Europe through the Turkish Stream. Of the 31 billion cubic meters of gas pumped, half goes to Turkey itself, and 15.75 billion cubic meters are sent through the Balkan pipeline to Europe — Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia and partly Greece. The pipe will be filled to its maximum capacity by October 2027. Neither the Russian president nor representatives of the Eastern European countries talked about stopping supplies. The uncertainty begins on October 1, 2027. From now on, Gazprom may turn from a gas seller to a rentier and lease pipes to other suppliers.

— Azerbaijani and Turkish gas could potentially flow in this direction. The scheme that applies to the Druzhba oil pipeline may well be used. The southern branch is blocked by Ukraine, and the northern branch does not supply Russian oil to Poland and Germany, as it used to be, but Kazakh oil is supplied through it within the framework of bilateral agreements between Russia and Kazakhstan. We will at least earn money by granting the right to pump gas from third—party suppliers through our gas transportation system," the expert describes a possible situation.