Compressed exports: where was Russian gas supplied in 2025

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, summed up the outcomes of 2025 for the Russian gas industry in comments to Forbes.

The expert believes that by 2030, the actual supply of Russian gas to Kazakhstan may increase to 6 billion m3 per year. But the main increase is expected in Uzbekistan, where exports may double, reaching 12 billion m3.

"Uzbekistan is experiencing severe gas shortages," Gromov says. — Last winter, Tashkent had to limit the supply of electricity from gas-fired power plants during peak consumption periods. Uzbekistan needs our gas, there are no alternatives, and it will increase purchases." So far, he recalls, Moscow and Tashkent have a two-year contract until 2026, which can be extended or revised if the parties manage to agree on an increase in prices, which Russia insists on.

Almost twice as much gas as goes to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan combined, that is, 18 billion m3, is sent to Belarus. And this volume will remain, Gromov has no doubt. "Given Lukashenko's talent for negotiating with our president, I think the issue will be resolved and the contract for supplies to Minsk will be extended, most likely, until 2030," he says.

According to Alexey Gromov, domestic consumption in Russia, taking into account supplies not only from Gazprom, but also from other producers, decreased by 2% in 2025 to 518 billion m3 by 2024 due to mild winters and mild summers in almost the entire territory of Russia. To provide the country with gas and switch to gas-powered fuel, which, however, is proceeding rather slowly, supplies to the domestic market will increase by at least 20 billion m3 by 2030, the analyst says.

With the arrival of the Donald Trump administration in 2025, China's interest in purchasing additional volumes of Russian pipeline gas has increased markedly, Gromov says. Russia and China have signed additional agreements to increase Russian gas supplies through the Power of Siberia from 38 billion to 44 billion m3 per year, he recalls. New volumes will arrive in China after 2030, and before that, Russia will be able to supply China with no more than 39 billion m3 per year. China also asked to increase supplies from 10 billion to 12 billion m3 per year via the "Far Eastern Route" (it is called the "Power of Siberia-3") from Sakhalin, the expert recalls. The resources of the offshore fields make it possible to do this, but not before 2028. Russia still needs to build a bridge with the Chinese pipeline system, and China needs to bring its part of the system to the Russian border, which Beijing has promised to do by the end of 2027, Gromov says.

"The Power of Siberia-2" is a sought-after project, the analyst believes. China has realized that it is too risky to bet on the global LNG market, where the main players are the United States and Qatar, he argues. China has strained relations with the United States, and there is no reason to expect them to improve. After abandoning Russian pipeline gas, Europe is also focusing on LNG from the United States and Qatar. So, there is a risk that Qatar will play on the competition between the Europeans and the Chinese, Gromov believes.

"It is more reliable for China to receive more gas from neighboring countries, primarily from Russia, with which there is no prospect of geopolitical tension. I think the contract for the Power of Siberia - 2 can be signed as early as 2026," the analyst notes.

The main uncertainty with pipeline supplies remains in the European direction, Gromov adds. Despite the sharp decline in Russia's share in gas imports, more gas was shipped to Europe in 2025 than to Central Asia or Belarus — about 34 billion m3 in 11 months, if you add up the volume of imports via pipelines and LNG.