Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the possible consequences of the Middle East straits closure for the global oil market to the Izvestia Internet portal.
If the geopolitical situation on the Middle East coast stabilizes and the United States and Iran conclude a truce again, then, of course, this will spur the cost to decrease, the expert notes. However, according to him, the situation at the time of signing the memorandum and at the present time are fundamentally different. At that time, a significant number of tankers with already loaded oil accumulated in the Strait of Hormuz, which was eventually delivered to customers, which contributed to lower prices. Currently, no new volumes of raw materials have been formed in the region, and the confidence of market participants in political decisions has been undermined. Therefore, even with the stabilization of the situation, the drop in quotations is likely to be less significant than a month ago. According to him, in this case, the price of Brent may decrease to a maximum of $ 80-83 per barrel.
As Alexey Gromov notes, Russia has been exporting record volumes of oil for more than six weeks now. According to Bloomberg, in June, Russia increased exports to a record high, exceeding 4.11 million barrels per week, the most since the beginning of the year. Of course, an increase in global quotations will contribute to an increase in the Urals price, and a reduction in available sources of oil supplies in the Middle East may make Russian raw materials more in demand.
According to preliminary calculations by the Reuters news agency, oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in July may grow by about 60% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the budget-friendly situation may be complicated by possible new sanctions from the United States and the European Union, Alexey Gromov believes.
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