The OPEC+ countries have extended restrictions on oil production

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the reasons and consequences of the OPEC+'s decision to postpone a phased increase in oil production.

It is difficult to expect real surprises from OPEC+ today, Alexey Belogoryev says.

"Everyone understands that OPEC+ is no longer ready to cut production and is now focused only on how to contain its growth. This is obviously a weak position if the goal is to maintain high oil prices," he believes.

According to the FIEF estimates, the global market demand for OPEC+ supply in 2024 decreased by 2% compared to last year. At the same time, there are no signs of an increase in the indicator in 2025 yet. The entire increase in global oil demand is "more than" offset by non-OPEC + production: in the USA, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and several other countries. Therefore, from the point of view of maintaining the balance of supply and demand, the alliance should not abandon the planned easing, but, on the contrary, tighten them, Belogoryev believes. However, the countries are unlikely to be able to agree on such a thing.

"The only loophole out of this situation is a reduction in Iranian oil production and exports and an increase in the Middle East geopolitical premium due to Donald Trump's tough foreign policy. If these widespread expectations are met, then OPEC+ will have a small, short window of opportunity to increase production," the expert argues.