The United States imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil: whether they collapse Russian exports

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Mash on the consequences of the blocking US sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL.

"On the one hand, India is interested in maintaining Russian supplies and, in general, would not like to stop large-scale trade with Russia for both economic and political reasons. But on the other hand, this country has always been very sensitive to sanctions and tries to avoid them as much as possible. Therefore, it is difficult to say now how India will act. I think certainty will appear within a month or a month and a half, not earlier. In December, we will have the first understanding of how much exports will decline," Alexey Belogoryev commented.

According to the expert, the experience of Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft has shown that with timely measures, a significant reduction in exports can be avoided, but costs will still rise.

"The participation of intermediaries, all kinds of "gray" schemes significantly increases the supplier's losses in terms of marginality. Lukoil and Rosneft will receive less money for the same volumes of supplies than before," he explained.

Another risk is associated with international projects involving Rosneft and Lukoil. As Alexey Belogoryev recalled, companies have been actively investing abroad in the last decade. The new US sanctions greatly reduce the opportunities for Russians to interact with other foreign players. Therefore, companies may have to withdraw from a number of projects.

"The international assets of Rosneft and Lukoil are under threat. It will be about the same with them as is currently happening with Gazprom Neft's stake in Serbian NIS (due to sanctions, the company, whose main owner is a Russian holding company, was deprived of the opportunity to buy oil and sell petroleum products abroad - editor's note). That is, there will be the same pressure, and I believe that in each case the decision will be made individually, depending on the political position of the local national government," the IEF Research Director said.