The Central Asian Gas Tangle: who sells to whom, and whether to expect changes

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Neft and Capital magazine on the long-term increase in Russian pipeline gas supplies to Central Asian countries.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, if we exclude gas from the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field, which goes back to Kazakhstan in the form of commercial gas, in 2030 the total volume of Russian gas supplies to Central Asia may increase by 8-10 billion cubic meters per year. In total, taking into account the volumes that Russia supplies now, it will amount to about 16 billion cubic meters per year.

"In Kyrgyzstan, the growth of natural gas supplies from Russia will be smooth. I would say up to 700 million cubic meters per year. But the more important buyers for Moscow are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Both countries will need gas from abroad to cover their domestic shortages. Uzbekistan is already in such a situation, and Kazakhstan expects this by the end of this year," the expert says.

Alexey Belogoryev acknowledged that Kazakhstan has the opportunity to increase gas production, but the country has to pump gas back into formations to increase oil recovery. Given the arid nature of the mining areas, there is no other way out.

"There will be no other economically reasonable source of gas for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan other than Russia. Kazakhstan can increase purchases to 4-5 billion cubic meters per year. Maybe more. Nevertheless, the country is implementing a strategy to gasify its northeastern regions. It is also quite reasonable to expect an increase in demand for Russian gas to 5 billion cubic meters from Uzbekistan, and by 2027," the analyst concluded.