Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the prospects for Russian LNG supplies to Europe.
In 2022, LNG supplies to EU countries increased by 21% over the year. But Russia has almost no additional capacity left, Alexey Belogoryev said:
"Russia is currently exporting LNG at the maximum of its capabilities. Only a new plant in the Portovaya complex on the Baltic Sea will give a small increase. The rest of our plants — Yamal LNG and Sakhalin-2 — are operating above their design capacity. The next major change will occur after the commissioning of the first stage of Arctic LNG-2. But when this will happen is still unclear. It is less and less likely that it will be the beginning of 2024, most likely the dates will shift to 2025. There are still great difficulties in terms of import substitution of the main equipment. Therefore, until new capacities appear, there will be no serious changes in export volumes.
At the same time, I do not think that sanctions will be imposed in this area, because the situation on the LNG market is very tense, and Russian fuel is objectively needed. Here, in general, the situation in Europe is even noticeably worse than in terms of oil. The EU will remain the main market, but, on the other hand, it is not Russian companies that decide here. To a much greater extent, it depends on those corporations that have contracted Russian LNG, for example, from the same Total."
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications