Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Oil and Capital Internet portal on the opportunities and risks of developing the LNG industry in the United States.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the United States does have a huge potential for increasing LNG capacity in the next 5-7 years. However, according to analysts, many companies in the implementation of projects will fail. Among the main reasons is increased competition, which objectively spurs the growth of salaries of highly qualified personnel and the rise in the cost of equipment.
There is also a threat from US regulators, which at some point may slow down the growth of LNG exports. The reason is quite simple: the more gas is exported from the US, the more its price on the domestic market is tied to global prices, and in recent years they have clearly been higher than American ones, and volatility is extremely high.
However, as Alexey Gromov noted, this will not become a fundamental problem for companies operating in this area.
He also stressed that for any energy industry, long-term contracts are a guarantee of demand, on which the Russian gas industry was once built.
“Of course, with the growth of sales to other countries, the price of gas in the United States itself may also increase. But the American law is not static. Washington can take measures: introduce customs duties, some kind of damper analog, and somehow regulate these processes. The risks, of course, may increase if the country becomes as export-oriented as possible. But companies do not set it as an end in itself. They just need to sell their surplus gas, which is overwhelmingly produced by oil extraction (associated gas)", the expert notes.
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