Chained gas: where will Russian LNG go after the ban on supplies to Europe

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on how the 2026-2027 heating season in the EU might go and how realistic the US proposals for partial restoration of Russian-European gas ties are.

Alexey Belogoryev noted that in the context of falling imports from Qatar, the share of Russian LNG supplies in total imports to the EU rose to 10.4% in the third quarter compared with 10.0% in the third quarter of 2025, and Russia retained, albeit by a wide margin, the position of the second largest supplier after the United States. In the third quarter, LNG shipments from the United States to the EU and the United Kingdom decreased by 7% year—on-year, to 13.8 million tons, but against the background of a general supply shortage, their share in total imports even increased from 62% to 67%.

It is not yet clear what will happen after January 1, but most likely, from that date, the three main European buyers of Yamal gas — TotalEnergies, Spanish Naturgy and German SEFE — will unilaterally terminate their long-term gas purchase contracts, citing the new EU requirements as a legitimate force majeure, Belogoryev says. Accordingly, the expert notes, Novatek will have to deal with the sale of all falling volumes.