The OPEC's adjusted forecast still looks overstated, but more adequate than the IEA estimates

Alexey Belogoryev commented to the internet portal "Davydov.Index" on the OPEC's revision of the global oil demand forecast in 2024-2025.

Alexey Belogoryev argues that the OPEC's forecast for oil consumption has been lowered for the first time in a year:

OPEC, in fact, went only to a small correction of its forecast (-6% for 2024), which most experts initially considered overestimated. Overall, OPEC retains its inherent optimism about demand.

The fact that the OPEC estimates differed greatly in 2023-2024 from the forecasts of the International Energy Agency is more likely to be the fault of the IEA, whose quality of analysis suffers too much from ideological attitudes towards accelerated decarbonization and support for "green" energy. OPEC, of course, also pushes its information agenda through forecasts, which is the opposite of the IEA, but it does so with less separation from reality.

Therefore, although OPEC estimates look overstated even after the revision, they still, in my opinion, reflect the market balance more adequately than the IEA estimates.